Cal Newport 鈥04 Discusses Changes Ahead From AI

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The Montgomery Fellow allays some of the fears about artificial intelligence.

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Cal Newport '04 talks about artificial intelligence.
Montgomery Fellow Cal Newport 鈥04 delivers a talk, How Worried Should We Be 天美麻豆 AI?, at Filene Auditorium on Wednesday. (Photo by Katie Lenhart)
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 is not worried about ChatGPT taking over the world or destroying jobs.

But he does see artificial intelligence systems changing workplaces and academia, topics he addressed before a crowd of about 150 people in Filene Auditorium on Wednesday.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not that we should let our guard down,鈥 the Montgomery Fellow and visiting faculty member in the  said. 鈥淏ut our cortisol level can decrease just a little.鈥 

Newport, an associate professor of computer science at Georgetown University, also writes articles for The New Yorker and best-selling books on culture and technology.

A former columnist for The 天美麻豆 and editor of The 天美麻豆 Jack-o-Lantern humor magazine, he credits 天美麻豆鈥檚 commitment to liberal arts with his ability to explore technical issues in an approachable way. 

鈥淎t 天美麻豆, this idea that you could be studying world-class science and at the same time embrace the arts 鈥 that was actually quite common,鈥 Newport said.

, the director of the , says 天美麻豆 is pleased to have Newport, an alumnus expert in his field, on campus this summer.

鈥淐al鈥檚 return shows our faculty that what we do matter and provides our students with a concrete example of how they can be agents of change in the world,鈥 Swayne says.

Newport began his speech by explaining how an AI system like ChatGPT responds to questions with human-sounding answers. The AI chatbot is not 鈥渢hinking鈥 about the answer, or even the question, when it鈥檚 fed a prompt.

鈥淎nd this is where it鈥檚 sometimes surprising for people,鈥 Newport said. 鈥淲hat鈥檚 it going to spit out? It鈥檚 just a single word.鈥

Systems like ChatGPT predict what the next word will be through probability of what it鈥檚 seen before, as well as cues from the prompt it鈥檚 been given and grammar rules. Then it repeats the entire process to find the next word.

It鈥檚 like a near-sighted frog that only looks one lily pad ahead. Systems like ChatGPT don鈥檛 have a memory of the past or a destination in mind. They鈥檙e just searching for the next place to hop.

But how do advanced chatbots sound so composed, Newport asked? It鈥檚 not a new mechanism. The answer is scale.

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Cal Newport '04 talks with professor SouYoung Jin.
Cal Newport 鈥04 speaks with Assistant Professor of Computer Science Souyoung Jin after his talk. (Photo by Katie Lenhart)

鈥淵ou could fill an entire Baker-Berry Library full of books just describing different patterns it might recognize and different chains of logic it might use 鈥 and still have way more books than you had room to actually put into it,鈥 Newport said. 鈥淭his incomprehensible scale is part of what allows these models to be so impressive.鈥

Despite that, AI systems are not alive in any sense of the word. They have no ability to reflect or change. With multiple processors grinding out word choices simultaneously, there鈥檚 not even a single intelligence to worry about, he said. All they do is pick out one word, over and over.

鈥淭hey will not accidentally become self-aware,鈥 Newport assured the audience. Maybe someday a system like ChatGPT could be used as part of a true AI鈥攁nd tech leaders have expressed concerns about that possibility鈥攂ut that鈥檚 not what we have today.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not going to fire the missiles,鈥 Newport said. 鈥淚t is going to introduce more bad behavior,鈥 such as misinformation or hard-to-detect scams. However, it鈥檚 unclear if AI systems will make these already-existing problems significantly worse.

Newport acknowledged that some might consider his position to be 鈥淧ollyannaish,鈥 but he also said, 鈥淚鈥檓 confident in that position because I鈥檝e spent a lot of time thinking and dealing with the actual technology.鈥

Currently, Newport is working on an article about how AI will affect jobs. Though he鈥檚 seen a lot of headlines prophesying doom and millions thrown out of work, Newport isn鈥檛 as concerned.

While AI is good at, for example, summarizing an email chain and coordinating a time to meet up, it can鈥檛 organize a conference, Newport explained. AIs lack nuance and specialized information. 

鈥淢ost knowledge work jobs are not built around generating text on general topics,鈥 Newport said.

Microsoft, which is a big investor in OpenAI, the company that makes ChatGPT, is testing plug-ins to its software products to help with common office tasks. Newport predicted the impact of tools like this will be similar to when email and the Internet entered the workplace. 

鈥淪o the most likely future is not that these productivity-enhanced language models are going to eliminate massive numbers of jobs so much as they will change them,鈥 Newport said. 

Those changes are already being felt on campuses like 天美麻豆鈥檚, as academics at various institutions weigh banning AIs versus allowing them as tools. Newport admitted there weren鈥檛 good answers yet, but his service on a Georgetown task force examining the issue has led him to lean toward seeing AI more as a tool and less as a threat.

Newport recalled how disruptive the internet was for colleges and universities. Professors had to adjust their teaching in a world where almost all information was available鈥攊ncluding last year鈥檚 exams.

On the bright side, Newport pointed out that AIs were very good at explaining subjects like math, and students could ask the digital tutors questions.

鈥淲e are going to be using it, not trying to ban it,鈥 he said.

After the talk, , a PhD student in the , said she had read Newport鈥檚 book Digital Minimalism: Choosing a Focused Life in a Noisy World during the pandemic, and it 鈥渃ompletely changed my relationship with social media.鈥 

鈥淚 learned to be more intentional about when and why I use it. It was wonderful meeting him and saying thank you in person,鈥 Zhang said. 鈥淚 truly enjoyed his speech. Newport demystified large language models like ChatGPT and offered his candid opinions on the risks and opportunities brought by this technology.鈥

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Cal Newport talks to 天美麻豆 graduate students.
Quantitative Biomedical PhD student Zhuoya Zhang looks on as classmate Thadryan Sweeney talks with Cal Newport 鈥04. Sweeney said Newport鈥檚 book So Good They Can鈥檛 Ignore You has become his 鈥済o-to playbook for career matters.鈥 (Photo by Katie Lenhart)

Isabel Macht, who will be a high school senior next year at Fryeburg Academy in Maine, was visiting her father in the area and also decided to attend the talk. She鈥檇 heard about ChatGPT, but mostly from teachers warning her not to use it.

Macht had been worried about how to prepare for AI job disruptions, but she came away more hopeful after Newport鈥檚 talk. 

鈥淚t did help with the idea of, OK, just continue with your path and transform your life with AI as it comes at you,鈥 she said. 

Newport is teaching a computer science course, Writing 天美麻豆 Technology, this summer and also has had other talks on campus, including one at the Rockefeller Center in late June on rethinking work in the age of distraction.

Matt Golec